Chesapeake, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

607
FXUS61 KAKQ 191438
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1038 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front lingers over the region today with additional
showers and storms. A stronger cold front crosses the area
later Sunday into Monday and a return to seasonable temperatures
and humidity is expected into the middle portion of next week,
along with mainly dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1038 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Additional showers and storms are likely today with the threat
  of heavy rainfall and flash flooding continuing. A Flood Watch
  is in effect for portions of central and eastern Virginia.

- A few storms could also be strong to severe and produce
  damaging wind gusts and small hail.

- Hot and humid today with the highest heat indices (105-109 F)
  in northeast NC. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM-8 PM
  in these areas.

Surface analysis depicts a stationary boundary draped across
northern VA through the MD Eastern Shore counties this morning.
Soundings from across the area sampled a very moist atmospheric
profile, with PW values easily exceeding 2" this morning. With cloud
cover scattering since this morning`s rain, temperatures have been
able to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

A weak disturbance is progged to move across the area today, with
the surface boundary expected to remain in place. This boundary
will serve as the main trigger for convection again this afternoon
and ignite scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across
the forecast area through the evening hours. Convection will start
to develop west of our area earlier in the afternoon then traverse
eastwards into our area through the evening. MLCAPE could approach
3000 J/kg as strong daytime heating is expected. In addition,
minimal inhibition will be present and PW values will continue to
exceed 2"+. As opposed to earlier in the week, some modest deep-
layer shear (20-25 kt) will be present and storm motion will be at
~20-30 mph. With the weak upper-level support in place and the
aforementioned environmental set-up, strong to severe storms are
possible today. SPC has placed the forecast area in a Slight Risk
(2/5) for severe weather today, with damaging wind gusts being the
main threat, though large hail cannot be ruled out. The severe
threat should diminish after sunset and the loss of daytime heating.
Despite the quicker storm motion expected today, the ground remains
very saturated from the rainfall received over the past few days and
it will not take much rain to result in flash-flooding, especially
in the most vulnerable areas. WPC continues to highlight the area in
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall today. A Flood Watch is in
effect for this afternoon through the first part of tonight for a
majority of the forecast area (excluding the SW piedmont and Eastern
Shore).

In regards to temperatures today, hot and humid conditions will
continue today ahead of the arrival of convection. Forecast highs
range from the mid-upper 80s on the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck
to the lower 90s for most of central and SE VA. A few mid 90s are
also possible in NE NC. Combined with dew points in the mid 70s,
heat indices around 100 F are possible. Along the Albemarle Sound
(where dew points remain the upper 70s), peak heat indices around
105 F are expected this afternoon. A Heat Advisory has thus been
issued for these areas from 11 AM-8 PM. Lows drop into the 70s
tonight under a gradually clearing sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A lower coverage of storms is expected Sunday and Monday.

- Hot and humid conditions persist into Sunday, especially for
  southern VA and northeast NC.

- More seasonable conditions return for Monday behind a cold front.

The boundary near the area will push N as a warm front early
Sunday. A stronger cold front then progresses through the Great
Lakes and OH Valley Sunday afternoon. Despite the approaching
front, the vast majority of convection is expected to remain W
and NW of the area. However, the NW flow aloft suggests a low
potential of a few storms sneaking into our area and PoPs are
20%-30% for most. In the off chance that a storm gets this far
E from upstream convective complexes, it could be on the
stronger side given a belt of stronger northwesterlies will be
located over the area aloft. SPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1
out 5) for severe wx for most of the Mid- Atlantic region,
including our CWA. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on
Sunday given low- level thicknesses trend upwards and forecast
highs are in the low-mid 90s. There is a decent chance that a
Heat Advisory will be needed for at least a portion of the area,
with the best potential for 105 F heat indices across SE VA and
NE NC. Lows Sunday night in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s
near the coast.

The front crosses the area Sunday evening into Sunday night. While
the frontal passage looks mainly dry, again cannot rule out an
isolated shower/storm or two. More widespread convection should be
tempered by the lack of forcing aloft. Lower dewpoints filter in the
region behind the front and afternoon dew points Monday will likely
be in the 60s for most. The boundary may linger near S/SW portions
of the area so a few afternoon/evening storms are possible here, but
confidence is on the lower side. High temps will be not as hot and
in the mid-upper 80s for the area. Most areas should also dip into
the 60s Monday night, with the exception of coastal SE VA and NE NC
which should remain in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity for the early and
  middle portion of next week, along with mainly dry weather.

- Hot and more humid weather returns by late next week.

Warm, mainly dry, and relatively less humid wx (mid 60s-70F dew pts)
is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper ridge becomes
centered over the MS River Valley and sfc high pressure builds to
our NE. Tuesday looks like the nicest day with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s under a sunny/mostly sunny sky. The large upper
ridge is then forecast to expand north and east toward the end
of next week. This will likely bring a return to hot and humid
conditions, especially by Thursday and Friday. We should remain
mostly rain free through Friday (outside of isolated
aftn/evening tstms).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 615 AM EDT Saturday...

Mainly dry this morning with patchy MVFR to locally IFR CIGs in
stratus near RIC and SBY. A few spots are also reporting MVFR
VSBY. These CIGs should linger for the next few hours,
generally lifting to MVFR by 14-15z and then VFR afterwards. VFR
should continue to prevail at ORF, PHF, and ECG through the
morning hours. CU again develops later this morning and
afternoon with additional chances for convection after 18-20z.
MVFR-IFR VSBY and gusty winds are the main concern within
showers and storms. PROB30 groups are included at all terminals
later this afternoon and evening. Winds through the period will
mainly be 5-10 kt out the S-SW, but could turn onshore due a sea
breeze at ORF later this afternoon.

Outlook: A lower coverage of storms is expected by Sunday-
Tuesday. Primarily VFR outside of showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through much of the weekend
  with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continuing.

- A brief northerly surge is possible Sunday night into Monday
  morning behind a cold front with SCAs possible.

- A period of elevated southwesterly winds is possible Thursday
  night.

Latest surface analysis depicted a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
draped across the upper bay just north of the local area near
Chincoteague. Offshore, bermuda ridging remains anchored out in the
western Atlantic. Winds were E-SE ~10 kt north of the boundary and W-
SW south of the front over the bay, VA rivers and the central
and southern coastal zones.

The front will become increasingly diffuse later today and tonight.
Winds become S-SW early this morning all zones, before becoming
SSE ~10 kt in late morning and afternoon seabreeze. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms are once again expected by
afternoon into the evening across the Ches Bay and S coastal
waters with gusty winds again possible, and expect several
MWS/SMW to be needed this afternoon into the evening.

Winds remain W-SW ~10 kt tonight and tomorrow, as the front and
Bermuda ridging offshore weakens a bit further. A cold front
drops S across the local waters Sun night into Monday with a
brief N surge looking more likely late Sun night into Monday
morning. Winds become N with gusts up to 20 kt. While in-house
probs are initially quite low (<20%), still believe that a
brief round of SCAs will be possible with this surge given the
CAA behind the front. Winds remain elevated through the day on
Mon, gradually becoming NE by late Mon afternoon. Waves of 1-2
ft and seas around 2 ft prevail through the weekend, building
to 2-3 ft Sun night into Mon. Onshore flow by the middle of the
week should allow seas to build to 3-4 ft (highest across the S
coastal waters). A low risk of rip currents is expected through
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 305 AM EDT Saturday...

A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Blackwater River in
Dendron. River levels have started to rise again, so the warning
has been extended until further notice.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015-016-
     030>032.
VA...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for VAZ048-062-064-069-075>078-080>086-088>090-092-093-
     095>098-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW/NB
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...